Sunday, March 26th, 2023
3-4 pm CEST at Grenoble, France
Projections of sea-level rise are being extended to increasingly longer periods; the most recent IPCC report presented likely ranges to 2150 rather than 2100, reflecting the rising concern for long-term sea level changes. In this talk, we present projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 under low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5), based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. Land ice, thermal expansion and land water storage changes are combined to create sea level projections; we consider the effects emissions have on these long-time scales, and the differing uncertainties of the components contributing to sea-level rise. We discuss how these simple statistical extensions can be replace with more physically based methods to improve our projections, and consider their use for stakeholders and societal implications.
By Fiona Turner (PROTECT)
Link: https://protect-slr.eu/events/